C4CC (2): The problem of Peak Oil, part one
Introductory note for 2023: when I first started to develop the ideas in this book, back in 2006/7 I was in two minds about whether to start with Peak Oil or with Global Warming (as it was then called). I chose to go with Peak Oil as I thought the science was clearer and more robust - and I am very glad that I did so, as I think the quality of the science on the one side (petroleum geology) is so much stronger than the other. But hey, what do I know. I’ll say more about that when we get to some specifics - this extract, though, is really about the principles.
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There are very many stories of the environmental havoc and destruction which our industrial civilisation has generated, and a great many warnings about the inevitable crisis that comes when our civilisation exceeds the carrying capacity of our home planet. This Chapter will focus in upon one element of that overall crisis, which is the element that may be the most important underlying factor of all: oil.
We read in the book of Genesis that Joseph came to a position of power and authority in Pharaoh's realm through his ability to interpret dreams. Pharaoh had two similar dreams: of seven fat cows being eaten by seven thin cows, and seven fat ears of corn being eaten by seven thin ears of corn. Joseph rightly sees these dreams as messages from God, foretelling seven years of abundance, to be followed by seven years of famine. Joseph counsels the appointing of a wise man to ensure that the surplus in the years of abundance is carried over in order to prevent starvation during the times of famine. The phenomenon of peak oil can be summarised as seven fat barrels of oil followed by seven thin barrels of oil, with the thin consuming the fat. The problem of peak oil is that we are nearing the end of the seventh fat year, and there are no Josephs in positions of authority.
There are two fundamental laws of physics which are relevant here. The first law of thermodynamics states that energy cannot be created; it can only be transformed from one state into another. The second law of thermodynamics is that energy degrades over time (entropy). Our organised life is the delay of entropy – essentially what we do is capture forms of energy that are available in our natural environment and channel that energy to do useful work for us, to keep our civilisation going. Energy is simply what allows us to do work.
Oil itself is one example of a 'fossil fuel', along with coal and gas. These deposits of hydrocarbons were laid down in particular geological eras through very particular historical circumstances. We can think of them as being deposits of ancient sunlight, in that the energy contained in oil is ultimately derived from the sun, which caused plants to grow, and those plants have, through geological pressures, come to form the oil that we are familiar with. As is well understood, oil is a finite resource.
It is also a wonderful form of energy. It is very dense – for example, the oil contained in an average car petrol tank contains sufficient energy to lift 50 such cars to the top of the Eiffel tower. It is also very easy to handle, being a liquid at normal temperatures, which means that it is easy to transport, store and use. As a result of these wonderful qualities we have spent most of the twentieth century building our economies around the ready availability of oil. At present, world wide, oil provides around 43% of total energy use, but also some 95% of transportation energy.
So what exactly is 'peak oil'? Two images may help. First, imagine a traditional hot water tank, kept in the loft of a house, which you wish to draw water from in order to run a bath. Initially, the flow of water to the bath can be controlled by opening and closing the tap. As water is drawn down from the hot water tank the pressure begins to drop, and so the flow rate of water through the tap declines. There comes a point when, no matter what is done to the tap, the flow of water trickles down to nothing and there is no more hot water. This is the first point to realise about peak oil: it refers to the point of maximum flow of oil, not to the point when there is no more oil at all.
The second image is this: imagine a new bar that opens, which serves a wonderful beer. You are the only customer on opening night, and you are delighted with the quality and price of the beer. So you tell a friend, and the next night you return with him to enjoy this wonderful drink. The next night each of you brings another friend, and you all enjoy the beer and tell friends, and very soon this bar is a thriving establishment, growing swiftly. However, the owner of the bar has exactly the same issue with his beer as described with the bath water above: there comes a point when the flow of beer hits a 'peak' – when he hits the limit of how much beer can be supplied at any one point in time. At this point there are only a few alternatives: either people can decide that they do not want the beer after all; or a rationing system is put into place (normally by forming a queue); or the price of beer goes up so that only the rich can have it; or... the customers begin to fight.