Pondering the shape of Starmergeddon

Thinking through a scenario

I say scenario – and this was brought to my mind from listening to Nate Hagens recently – because I do not have the confidence to make it a forecast. I find it plausible, likely even, but as ever it’s not the known unknowns that will do it in, it’s the unknown unknowns. So with the clearing of the throat, let me outline what is on my mind.

Trump’s Epic Folly is a stick thrust into the spinning bicycle wheel of modern, Western, industrial capitalism – all the ‘just-in-time’ globalised resource flows. Hopefully people are familiar enough by now with what has been passing through the Strait of Hormuz to have a sense of this, not just crude oil but things like the sulphuric acid supply which enables copper mining, and the urea that enables fertliser production and so on. There are going to be so many consequences flowing from his decision that it’s impossible to even conceptualise them all – too many interactions and feedback loops – so I’m going to focus here on one strand (financial consequences) and one location (here in the UK). In brief, I consider it likely that Starmergeddon is now imminent (any time from now to summer 2028 on the outside).

First level consequence: the costs of transport will rise for everyone. I am expecting a significant spike in the oil price within the next four weeks, maybe as little as two weeks, which will first establish a new nominal record price for a barrel of oil, and then in all likelihood a new inflation-adjusted record price. The size of the oil shock caused by Epic Folly will be larger than that experienced in the 1970s, for the simple reason that the curtailment of the oil supply is larger and more sustained. Thus far the shock has been deferred through a number of short-term measures, principally a draw-down of strategic reserves but also the activation of some supply sources and the beginnings of demand destruction, especially in Asia (not China). My suspicion is that once the spike subsides, the new equilibrium price will be significantly higher than it has been hitherto – so, for the UK, something like £2 per litre of oil for the next few years. For more on some of the background to this, try HFI Research here on the stack.

Second level consequence: the UK will enter into a significant recession, and this will trigger a fiscal crisis for the UK government (and other things too, like a housing crash). As the increase in fuel costs work their way through the economy, basic provisions (food etc) will absorb significantly more of the household budget. All the industries that depend upon discretionary marginal spending will go to the wall (think gyms, restaurants). The government’s income will decrease, the benefits bill will increase, and the government will have to borrow to pay for the difference. This borrowing from the bond market will in turn become more expensive as the overall fiscal position of the UK has already become precarious. I don’t know if this will mean an IMF bailout à la the 1970s – partly because the IMF doesn’t have enough fiscal firepower to bail us out – but I do expect the government to be forced to make some very hard choices, most especially with regard to the overall welfare provision and things like the triple-lock on pensions. The simple truth is that we can’t afford such things any more. For more on the background to this, have a read of this on the bond markets.

Third level consequence: social tensions will escalate, exacerbating the slide into Betzian civil strife. There is already a great deal of tension between different communities – hence the rise of first Reform and now Restore – and the economic element of this is going to become extremely salient, in the form of this sort of question: “why are we housing these rapist asylum seekers and great expense when we can’t even afford a pint of milk?” Do read David Betz himself on all this; my point is simply to emphasise the accelerant effect of severe economic hardship. That which might have been a few years away is, in my view, more likely to be a few months away. (NB it’s possible that the release of Lowe’s rape gang report might crystallise this, especially if it pushes Restore to a strong outcome in Makerfield.)

Fourth level consequence: a scapegoating process, culminating in the deportation of the Mirpuri Muslim community (significant elements thereof – this is what I call Starmergeddon). At this point in time I don’t see a way to avoid it, whereas I do see all the building blocks leading to a Girardian, mimetic crisis. The community tensions are there and the ‘enemy’ has already been named. The present elite don’t have the intellectual tools to respond creatively (Bishops for the most part included in that). None of them love the left hand.

So what is a Christian to do? What is the church to do? More precisely, are there ways to evade satanic capture (Girardian mimesis/ scapegoating process) whilst also addressing the real and weighty concerns of the indigenous English? In other words, is it possible to seek a just resolution to the crisis (punishment of evil, maintenance of borders, affirmation of a national identity) whilst not succumbing to ideologies of hate (on both left and right political wings) and in particular holding back the currents leading to lynching and mob violence?

I think the most important question that we need to ponder now is what sort of society is going to be established inside the boundary once that boundary is re-established. That’s where the church needs to speak – not to mindlessly mimic the anywhere utopianism¹ of SW1 but to express an incarnational account of what it means to be English, in a way that – precisely by affirming Englishness (or possibly Britishness) – serves to inhibit a descent into depravity.

Something to work on.

1 I was about to write nowhere utopianism before I remembered where the word came from!